1. What Drives Stock Prices along Business Cycles? (2022)

Abstract: This paper applies a Bayesian break method to studying the empirical time-varying relations between stock price ratios and subjective expectations across the market and 30 industry portfolios monthly from 1976 to 2020. Cash flow expectations unconditionally explain 80% of price variations since 2000 but their role is concentrated during recessions, especially among the hardest-hit industries such as Telecommunications during Tech Bubble, Financials during Great Recession, and Healthcare during Covid-19. Concurrently, discount rates explain the remaining 20% but their portion rises above 50% during the expansionary 2010s. Further tests show that cash flow expectations matter more under financial uncertainty. Inflation expectations, while accounting for 60% of price fluctuations before 2000, play a negligible role thereafter.

  1. Economic Narratives and Market Outcomes: A Semi-supervised Topic Modeling Approach (with Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2021)

Abstract: We employ sLDA to extract the narratives discussed by Shiller (2019) from 7 million NYT articles over 150 years. The estimation addresses look-ahead bias and changes in semantics. Panic and the narrative index positively predict market re- turn and negatively predict volatility. Panic presents time-varying risk aversion. The narrative predictability increases recently at both market and portfolio and monthly and daily intervals. The narrative index constructed from 2 million WSJ articles over 130 years retains its predictive power, but Stock Bubble emerges as a negative market predictor. Media customizes their narratives to their readers, having a diverse effect on the market.

  1. Change in Consumption Growth and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns (with Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2020)

Abstract: We conduct empirical tests of a simplified version of the ratio habit model developed in Abel (1990), in which habit is extended beyond the preceding period. We show that change in four-year consumption growth—the measure of consumption resulting from our ratio habit preference—explains the joint equity premium–risk-free rate puzzle with a risk aversion coefficient much lower than any existing consumption measures under the standard consumption model. This outperformance of our ratio habit model over the standard model is robust across 18 non-U.S. countries. From 1928-2017, change in four-year consumption growth encompasses other consumption measures in explaining the cross-sectional variation of expected returns on various portfolios and it is the only consumption measure that passes the robust tests of the factor risk premium proposed by Kleibergen and Zhan (2020). While our measure constructed from nondurables does better at pricing the equity premium and risk-free rate, our service-based measure outperforms in explaining the cross-sectional variation of stock returns.

  • Presentations: University of Missouri-Columbia 2020